RED, RED AND MORE RED!!!!

Don't make trades when the markets are red?

Why not? Been told not to? Read a book that said to stay away?

Plenty of opportunities come up even on red market days, you just have to know where to find them.

High of day list / good average day range stocks making 52 week highs are the way to go. Muddy has said it over and over again in chat and in this blog, it works. Today the markets were red as you know-

Wanna see what came up in chat? I stopped counting at 35 alerts because well, I just stopped:)

Some of the highlights: Symbol / Alert price / HOD

CTLG .75 / .95 AVII 3.04 / 3.22 ASTIZ 2.50 / 2.75

AMKR 14.02 / 14.30 DESC 1.80 / 1.91 FWLT 63.48 / 64.49

BHIP 2.34 / 2.55 JASO 19.78 / 20.28 GLBL 19.97 / 20.33

AMRN 3.25 / 3.39 VOLC 18.40 / 19.35 RIGL 12.00 / 12.44

NEXC 12.10 / 12.93 AHM 20.10 / 21.91 VRAZ 6.80 / 7.20

VNUS 11.00 / 11.47 MDII 1.45 / 1.70 PGNE .34 / .57

LEND 9.60 / 10.35 NFI 5.08 / 5.38 ISON 1.45 / 2.20

POWL 34.90 / 35.67 JDO 1.69 / 1.87 PDLI 22.70 / 23.62

PARL 5.20 / 5.59 and so on.

Anatomy of a trade today:

Spot VOLC coming across the rolling HOD list at 18.30. Have traded it in the past, remembered it had a decent day range. Checked the news, nothing today for it. Volume seemed good, nice break north so I dove in with a .30 trailing stop.

As you can see it continued north for a nice run to a hod 19.35. In this trade I sold just before the hod for a nice profit. Notice at no time did I mention overall market conditions, ticks / trins, etc. Does it matter? Sure does. Do I follow the overall market conditions? Yes I do, along with Gold, Oil, S & P futures and I listen to CNBC all day long.

Point is this: Trade what is front of you, if a stock is running, it's running. I may tighten my stops a bit and take smaller profits when the markets are down / lite volume days, but that is about it.

If you don't trade on down days and it works for you then that is great. If your looking to expand your capabilities then give the HOD list / 52 week high method a try, you might like it.

OK, the "Pile on theory" or "Everybody into the pool":

I think on red market days this method is even more effective than on green market days and here is why. Less stocks are green, traders who don't short much are looking for green. The result is that less stocks are running so the ones that pop green, hit HOD's and or 52 week highs get the goods. Make sense? Do you think ISON would have run as far and hard today if the markets were green and stocks were popping all over? Just a little theory.

Going Long Update 04.10.07

Long Portfolio Update

As mentioned before, we plan to update this port every ten weeks. I'm a day late but hey, not daytrading here! Prices for buys and sells are at close today, 04.10.07.

First Going Long Post
First ten weeks result of 14 stocks:



Dropped:
SYX MGM WPSC CVS(formerly CMX) ENR SINA HMIN ORBC

Split the cash evenly and added:
GLBL DYN FRG AVCI TTEC AMKR SBGI

New Port:

ANOTHER RUSH - AGEN

This one on my watchlist because as I've said many times,it's the kind that have been a squeeze/volume/breakout recently.
A sq/vol/br on 3/30 with a volume increase of 1.3 mil shares from previous day 77k this one started to hit the hod list with big vol at around 3.15 and was alerted.
About half an hour later it hit it's hod of 4.60.

WATCHES FOR THOSE THAT ARE TIME CRUNCHED

Someone asked for some stocks to watch on a blog, http://www.blondemoney.com, that I reply to once in awhile. Thought you might be interested as it's a pretty quick way to find some good potential runners, especially if you work during the week and are kinda crunched for time.

This method has been posted a few times on this blog as a play off the squeeze/volume /price increase filter.

Stocks at the top of my list I’m watching this week for a bounce.
ZROS BVSN SUF ONT ANO NNPP JDO WITM SDRG BMD BQI ASTI DSTI LJPC SIGA RPTN IVAN OVTI VION ESLR

The results:

The 20 stocks I had at the top of my list that I was watching for a bounce this week had a very good 4 day week overall.

It had 13 gains,5 losses and 2 break evens.

Of those 13 gains we had some real nice 4 day hits including:

ZROS +32%
RPTN +32%
BMD +27%
ANO +21%
SUF +16%
ONT +11%
ESLR +9%
ASTI +9%
SIGA +9%
IVAN +6%
BQI +5%

The 3 losers over 5% were:

WITM -14%
NNPP -10%
JDO - 7%

The overall performance of the 20 stocks was +7.4% for the 4 day week.

All 20 stocks had 3 things in common.
All were sitting in the pullback zone of ema13/sma20 after reaching the ubb recently.
All had had recent 8%+ gains.
All were above average dayrangers (the reason for the big gainers as when they start to go green,they often can go go)

These stocks were all found in less than 15 minutes with the scanning service I use,Stockfetcher.com and if you’re crunched for time you only need to run it once a week or so and keep the old ones on your list and wait for green.

BTW,regarding the pullback zone of ema13/sma20 that I have used the past few years,in recent months I have widened it slightly ( to ema 10/sma30 ) after reading about the TAZ (traders action zone) on http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/
This zone gives a better visual and works as well or better than my orignal zone.
My thanks go out to Craig over there.

On watch: Stemmies

Watching stemmies close the beginning of the week, some nice moves were made on Thursday:

News on White house bill support and that the Senate is to begin debate on Tuesday, could bring in some interest.

A few Stem / related stocks - last price as of Thursday and percent change:

ACEL 1.50 +7.91%
ACTC .82 +9.33%
ALXN 44.46 +1.46%
ASTM 1.58 +6.04%
CELG 58.03 +4.56%
CRIS 1.55 UNCH
GERN 7.43 +2.34%
IART 46.35 +0.87%
LIFC 24.78 +0.90%
OSTE 8.17 +1.62%
SPPI 6.63 +1.84%
STEM 2.94 +6.52%
VIAC 5.93 +4.40%

http://www.stemcellsstocks.com/

Muddy's Weekend Playlist

Muddy asked me to put up a couple of songs he likes. LOL, after three years with no sound, he finally has new computer speakers. Shew...three years. I am telling you this guy is lazy. Guess that's why he keeps saying "keep it simple" (aka Caveman Trading).

When he was a "muddster" he enjoyed this song:



Now that he's a "geezer" he prefers this "tamer" version:

SPEAKING OF IDMI

As Stockbee would say, IDMI had an episodic moment. That's why it's important to remember Former Runners. This stock may never go again, but many do, and that's why it's important get to know stocks and how they behave. GOAM, ZICA, and REFR are a few that come to mind. They may go quiet for a long period of time, but when one day they start running on the HOD list (with volume), you better pay attention!

Check out this post on The Point of Focusing. Here were two days where huge profits could have been made, since every stock on here I knew as a past runner.

New traders need to start building a mental list like this. It can be invaluable to your future trading since you don't need to study the chart in depth, you can just go on green if you know their history.

WHAT A RUSH!

IDMI ran 67% from it's open price of 6.12 in about 40 minutes.

I see so many folks going for nickels and dimes and this is why I don't do that.
One hit like this even every few months can increase profit returns big.

One needs to break away from the crowd in order to get an edge in the market.
Here's how I found IDMI and why I had it loaded ready to trade before the open .

(Apr 04-09:28) Muddy: IDMI may run awhile

(Apr 04-09:34) Muddy: ha IDMI

(Apr 04-09:35) Muddy: right did run from 6.12

(Apr 04-09:56) Muddy: on AH last night big IDMI and was sq/vol/br on earnings

(Apr 04-09:56) Muddy: figured it would blow

(Apr 04-10:04) TraderJJ: huge, very nice, one of those last min premkt stocks

(Apr 04-10:04) TraderJJ: /low premkt vol

(Apr 04-10:06) Muddy: IDMI IDM Pharma, Inc. $5.25 $6 14.29% 14,180

(Apr 04-10:06) Muddy: AH close last night

(Apr 04-10:10) loki3361: 10

Welcome to Our Newest Blog Member!

Look for a post or two soon from our newest blogger! We sent out an invite to a great trader that makes awesome calls in the chat room on a daily basis.

Seems to keep it simple the same as Muddy does: HOD list along stocks you know, price, and volume.

And BTW new Mystery Blogger, send me an email if you need help blogging or posting a chart or pic. I'm the blogmeister (aka blog secretary LOL)

Speaking of loki........

Glad to see you back in the chatroom. Awesome calls the last few days!

Great heads up on KRY yesterday at 10:14 at around $3.25. HOD $4.18!

(Mar 28-10:14) loki3361: KRY spike
(Mar 28-10:15) Muddy: LMRA 2 mil hod
(Mar 28-10:15) bottomlinestocks: LMRA breakout in progress
(Mar 28-10:16) Muddy: KRY 3.35 nice
_________

(Mar 28-10:21) Muddy: Loki,thnks KRY,got it
(Mar 28-10:21) loki3361: kewl, me too
(Mar 28-10:21) Muddy: never saw it
(Mar 28-10:22) Muddy: until you spotted it
(Mar 28-10:22) loki3361: hod list, just caught it as the list was flying at that moment
(Mar 28-10:22) NJ24: me too loki,thank you
_________
(Mar 28-15:02) loki3361: KRY 4

FRPT and stealing my alerts :)

LOL, I heard that loki!

(Mar 29-10:20) Muddy: Laura FRPT 2% up
(Mar 29-10:20) Muddy: may get another 2%
(Mar 29-10:21) LauraJ4957: okay, thx
----------------------------
(Mar 29-11:31) Muddy: Laura.... FRPT 4%
---------------------------
(Mar 29-14:49) loki3361: FRPT still
(Mar 29-14:50) NJ24: nice
(Mar 29-14:52) loki3361: whenever Muddy alerts Laura, steal it for 2 %, but don't let him know
(Mar 29-14:53) Muddy: TGEN
(Mar 29-14:53) Muddy: loki,ha,yes
(Mar 29-14:54) Muddy: i know she cant watch good cause of work so try to give "safer" ones,if such a thing

AN "AHA" MOMENT

Over at http://stockbee.blogspot.com, which by the way I highly recommend, I was reading an article about "Edge and Aha" which says how many of our best ideas come from that moment you say to yourself "aha, i finally get it",the ones where you think "why didn't I ever think of that before".

So anyway, a couple of weeks ago I had one of these moments (in my case I refer to them as my "DUH" moments,ha).
I always start checking premarket activity around an hour before open and refresh it every 10 minutes or so.
In the past I'd do my last refresh around 10 minutes before the open, load the volume and price leaders into my watchlist, go to the chatroom and get ready to roll.
Well I left the page up all day and when I went to check the Afterhours for the next day later that night the page had somehow refreshed itself to the CLOSE of Premarket trading for that day.
I noticed 2 stocks (don't remember the symbols now) that weren't on the leader board at 9:20 but appeared in the last 10 mins into the close.
And these 2 stocks ran really big after the open but , unlike many premarket leaders that gap up big and are many times uncatchable unless you wait around for a pullback if it happens, they did not gap up more than a few % and hung around that mark and didn't run until about an hour or so later.
So I've been tracking these "late" entries to the premarket leader board the past 2 weeks and about 75% of them have shown the same traits as the 2 stocks I found accidentally for the first time 2 weeks ago.

So my DUH moment hit me,to me it makes sense that this angle might have basis to it, that maybe the "news" that drove the stock up in premarket "late" isn't picked up by the bigger players until a little later than a normal leaderboard stock, one that had been on it all morning and in many cases in the aftermarket leader board the night before.

Anyway these stocks this week have hit the board very late that I have seen:

RCOM open 18.92 hod 20.90
HRSH open 2.85 hod 4.12
SIMO open 24.15 hod 25.85
GSIC open 20.68 hod 22.75
VYYO open 5.35 hod 7

There may be folks out there that have caught on to this years ago or just recently, if so please comment on your findings, thanks.

ICFI, Running through the Sq/Vol/Brks Tonight

ICFI had news, good earnings, moved to a 4th qtr profit from a loss last year in the same period. Breakout today but who would have known? Insiders I guess. Up over $3.00 a share after hours.

Should be interesting to watch tomorrow. (Assuming I have internet access tomorrow)

FILTERS I USE

In a recent comment I was asked this question,so here goes.

(1) show stocks where close gained more than 8 percent over the last one day and price is between .30 and 40

I use this to find bollinger band/volume increase/price breakout stocks aka as sq/vol/br
Please note, and this is VERY important, DO NOT use any volume indicator with this filter.
The reason being many huge runners go from tiny average volume to a very large 1 day spike on the stock's breakout and with a volume limit in the filter you will miss many of them.
I pull up all the matches and sort them by descending order of volume, most days using 700000k + as the cutoff limit.

I also use this filter with a date offset from 2 days up to 14 days and look for stocks that have gone down since hitting the filter.
Then I eyeball the charts and look for ones making either a FLAG pattern or ones that have pulled back into what we refer to in the chat as the MZ (muddy zone).This is the zone of the ema13/sma20.
To find some 2 day plus holds I use the following to find new 52 week highs beginning with a date offset of 2 and going up to 10 days looking for losers on the date offset filters and eyeballing the charts to find ones that have pulled back into the MZ and have gone green the next day.

(1a). show stocks where close reached a new 52 week high
price between 1 and 40
average volume(90)greater than 300000
average day range(30)is greater than 2
date offset is 2

Then on to the next filter

(2). show stocks where close lost more than 8 percent over the last one day and price is between 1 and 40 and volume is greater than 400000

I really like these as watches combined with stocks on the high dayrangers list.
I watch for matches off this list to go green from red on the realtime HOD list for best results.

(3). show stocks where the average day range(10) is above 8 percent and close price is between 1 and 15 and volume is above 300000

These are the stocks I love to trade.
I use one list per week,updating only once every weekend,2 minutes and done.Simple.
I load them into my watch list and trade them in numerous ways,off the hod list, going green from red,abnormal vol/spikes,hints of vol/movement in after and premarket that may indicate upcoming news.
Also I add a column "average day range(30)" to look for ones that are increasing in volatility in the last 10 days over their 30 day average.

(4). show stocks where fast stochastic fast %k(14) is below 10 and volume is above 400000 and close is between 1 and 15
average day range(10) is above 3

This I use to bottomfish and though a very simple filter has given imo some really good results.
I add columns RSI(2) and Williams%R(10) along with a column for fast stoch(14,10).
Complete details of this filter can be found on Stockfetcher.com on the Public Filters List on the Stockfetcher Forums under the filter name Fast%K Reversal.
This filter I mainly use for short swing trades.

And the best for last (for me):

(5). THE LIVE INTRADAY STREAMING HOD LIST FROM SCOTTRADE.
Not a filter or a scan but this is most awesome tool I use.
I know a ton of former runners and I can catch them very early many times in the start of their run.
I am not connected in any way with them other than a customer.
In fact I have a few gripes with them that they haven't ever emailed me back on.
It's just that the constant rolling hod list rocks for me and I haven't yet found another broker that offers it.
You can see what this rolling hod list looks like if you go up to the search box and type in "market movers"


You can change the volume and price in any of the filters to fit your personal tastes.
Please note on filter #1,the gained more than 8% momo filter I use a price down to .30.
Most times this will include otcbb and some pinksheets.
Understand I've been trading/watching stocks and markets for 43 years since the age of 15 and I have a tolerance for risk that is off the charts.
I'm very very careful trying to put the odds in my favor in the risk/reward department.
I have extreme confidence in what I do when it comes to trading.
If you are newer to trading please stay away from these lower priced and otcbb/pinks.
Stick with the price range you feel most comfortable with in these filters.

FORMER ZERO VOLUME STOCKS

I've talked about these many times in our old chat years ago.

I've mentioned it once on the " 100% STOCKS " post dated 1/1/07, so please if you are interested is these kind search and read that post.
In that post I referred to AQUA as running from .05, after it b/o 12/4 on 930k shares, after being a zero volume stock ( pointing of course to a very unknown stock) to .30 just 2 days later!
In the past week we had BTEM b/o 3/13 on 1.4 mil shares after being a zero volume on 2/14.
On that b/o day it closed at .70.
3 days later it sits at 2.22
All 3 days have shown over a mil shares trade on this former 0 volume stock.

ZROS this week kept on running.
It's 2/13 b/o on 2.5 mil shares at .545 came after being a 0 vol on 12/21.
Friday's close was 1.63

One scan that finds these easy plus other stocks of interest is simply :

stocks where volume is 500 percent above average volume(90)
and price is between .05 and 20
and date offset is 0
You can use any volume you want,I most times limit it to over 200,000 shares.

With a date offset to 3/13/07,last Tues, brings up LEND NEWC both +175% and BTEM at +217% into Fridays close

LOOKING BACK

At the day rangers list posted for week of 3/12.

Some really great interday moves on many of them.
One of the best trading weeks I've seen in awhile in fact.

Also over a dozen held double digit gains for the week at Fridays close.

NWACQ 11% DSTI 37% SUF 12% BVSN 25% URRE 10% ONSM 13% FMT 11% FICC 11% CBRX 12% HEPH 15% AVNR 18% NEW 40% and after the symbol change from NEW to NEWC 178%

The hardest hit ones that are still maintaining their volume ICGN UPBS OPBL LTS FORG MAMA URZ GNVC MGRM are definitely still on my watch.

LOW FLOAT STOCKS/INTRADAY MOVERS ON NEWS

I've seen quite a bit lately posted on other blogs about stocks that have been giving good profits intraday due to their above average day range + the markets continuing volatility range.

I've believed for years this is one of the best angles a daytrader can have.
It is why I follow the higher dayrangers so closely.

Imo,the BEST edge comes from low float stocks with earnings/news releases .
These are relatively unknown stocks.
And what happens often with these kind is unlike known stocks,they usually don't gap up huge right on open from what I've seen.

There was an amazing 8 day period in late Nov that produced 4 of the biggest 1 day runs (on non-penny) you'll find on TRADEABLE (huge volume,non penny stocks):

CRDC 11/20 from 13k shares to 5.6 mil ran from open 5.25 to hod 9.62

CSLR 11/27 from 4k to 2.5 mil ran from open 3.80 to hod 15.09 (that's not a misprint) 279% intraday move!

GOAM 11/28 from 186k to 1.7 mil ran from open 5.22 to hod 6.98

SWAT 11/28 from 80k to 1.4 mil ran from open 6.74 to hod 9.86

CRDC opened even
CSLR the huge runner opened 13% up
GOAM opened 2% up
SWAT opened 4% up

Believe me,I'm not suggesting one could have gotten in at those very low opening prices or sold near the hod's.
What I'm saying is that if you have the heart for volatility (and if you don't that is surely understandable,especially newer traders) taking anywhere out of the middle of these huge runs can give profits that others just wish about in a matter of hours.

A side note: Ironically we started our live chatroom on 11/20 the exact day CRDC went
BTW, All 4 of these stocks were caught and called (probably by TraderJJ,ha) very early from the hod list.

LJPC

This was one of the best classic examples of a sq/vol/br I've seen .
If you look at it on a 6 month chart prior to its b/o 3/8 it shows practically no price movement,trading in a pretty tight channel,especially the last 3 months.
Add to the fact that it was a very light volume stock,many days not trading even 50k shares.

Thurs it b/o on 3.3 mil shares!
Friday it was up at it's hod 66%,trading 5.6 mil shares!

Those looking for a nice 1 day profit Friday this was an easy catch off the hod list as it traded only pennies above its previous close until it zoomed right before noon,then pulled back, then traded sideways until around 2 p.m where it rocketed to 6.85 after opening at 4.18.

Also of note was a stock we've been following awhile WITM.
This was a pullback into the MZ after its most recent sq/vol/br 2/20.
Closed 24% up after going green at the open and rising steadily all day,closing only 2% shy of its hod.

DAY RANGERS FOR WEEK OF 3/12

EVCC YTBL NWACQ WITM ICGN NEW DSTI UPBS FMDA CPNE SUF OPBL CYTR LTS CTDC NEXM CHCG MEMY ZANE FORG NNPP BVSN URRE MAMA IVAN ONSM DRL FMT PRM FICC JDO CBRX URZ HEPH NEOL GNVC MGRM DESC AVNR IMH

WHAT I'M WATCHING 3/6

Basically I've been daytrading off the HOD list dayrangers since last Tues.
ANYTHING turning GREEN during the day since then has caught my attention.
NO overnight holds here,too scary for me.

At the top of my watches some beat downs,some continuations:

JADE INSM COR MOVI BMD RBY TSTC CRYO FORG LTS CYTR ASTI ALTI VSGN INRA CHCG PRM DSTI OPBL ICGN