Thursday, June 12, 2008

PRE MARKET LEADER DROPS

Besides pre leader "late" hits that I've talked about many times, another and imo an even better risk / reward play, I've talked about on chat is the angle of finding your leaders and following them on watch and looking for ones that turn red.

In order to find my leaders I use at least up 5 % pre and a minimum of 1000 shares traded.

So at the open almost all are up 5%.

Now I want to see red for any short candidates.
But not just red , I want at least a 2-3% confirmation after it goes red ( current price lower than yesterdays close ).
Believe me this giving away 2-3% is a good thing as many under 2% will pull a headfake and return fairly quickly back to even or green.

You don't get many plays,in fact with a list of 20 you may only get a couple a week but imo the risk/reward almost can't be beat.

From my list of 31 today:

CPCI AIRT CMED CLWT CYBX CASY CMZ ABI GERN AW ENS UAUA LYG IBN THC SNG SIRF DGLY NMSS OPXA CYTR TMY DCR ROSG HOTT DSCO FHN NCC ASIA HIMX

only 5 finished the day red and of those only UAUA SIRF and DCR had any vol to speak of.
DCR spread wasn't that tight but I guess was playable.
SIRF was 6.11 close yesterday so with that 2-3% the enter short was around 5.95.
It only reached 6.01 so not a confirm.
If you read my post here I love to trade around even dollar marks . I'd never have shorted it until it fell below the $6 mark anyway .If the confirm mark had been say 6 to 6.05 I'd have waited until at least 5.98/5.99 to go short.

Now UAUA turned out to be the perfect play.
It closed yesterday at 7.22 so red would be 7.21 today.
It ran as high 7.63 today and it didn't look at all like it would go red.
BUT it did hit 7.21 to go red.
The confirm short price was around $7 to 7.05 area BUT as I said I don't enter trades that are that close to an even dollar UNTIL that mark is broken.
So I was looking at around 6.95 area to get short.
Look at the chart and see how UAUA just totally fell apart after falling below $7.
In 2 hours of dumpage it hit a lod of 5.58!
Using the trailer of 3% that I also posted on that post that I use most times,the 3% stop from what then was the current lod of 5.58 my stop was 5.75 if it rose that far.
And it did and I stopped out with a no sweat trade of about $1.20 a share in 2 hours.
Of course they all don't do or even come close to this one but as I said,imo the risk/reward on these few a week is pretty darn good.

4 comments:

Ben Bien said...

Beautiful post, well explained, thank you Mike.

13th said...

Ben,
Thanks and this is to you and anyone else that might not understand fully a particular angle that I use,please leave a comment or email me.
I know this momo stuff is new to alot of folks so just trying to pass along whatever I think I understand now that I didn't before Muddys help.

Anonymous said...

13th ur work is awesome...thanks alot...I am new to this site so i am just confused about this pre market list. So there is only one list which is pre market...as soon as it turns red short it after 203 percent drop...but as soon as it turns green we long those same stocks after 2-3 percent increase? or is there a different list for long and short. sorry too many questions

DaBear said...

I have just read your I am gonna try articale Wow 13th thats amazing, all of it went way way over my head. Have you ever tried just doing resistance trading? I look forward to trying to see if any of this is use full to me. I have bean reading all of your comments on TIM and you realy seem to know what you are doing.