Just like the "floating" red candle above the UBB is often the kiss of death for awhile with many stocks,see recent charts for NTMD LVLT GIGA BVSN MCEL, the floating white candle below the LBB can be a good angle for a rise in price.
CWTR formed such a candle on Friday.
It's not normally a good dayranger and it's a $20 stock but MLS was in the same situation on 1/10 but rose from 15.47 to 22.46 in just 4 days.
FMDAD launched from there on 1/9, then sold off big after more than half (usually as bad as a floater if the red candle is big enough) its red candle was out of the UBB on 1/10.
Saturday, January 20, 2007
DAY RANGER WATCHLIST 1/22
Ones at the top of my list ranked in descending order of volume from Friday:
HOKU EVCC ACTC FORG ONT VEGF CYTR PFSW ZIXI BVSN SOLM TERN MIVT OBCI RMDX EGHT MEMY DKAM HIHO RNIN
Green hold and/or 10/60 sma 5 minute cross
HOKU EVCC ACTC FORG ONT VEGF CYTR PFSW ZIXI BVSN SOLM TERN MIVT OBCI RMDX EGHT MEMY DKAM HIHO RNIN
Green hold and/or 10/60 sma 5 minute cross
Friday, January 19, 2007
Stock Watch: ASIA 1/19/07
ASIA is on my watch list for trading Friday Jan 19. It came up as a forceswing candidate. As previously mentioned, using the force index for short term trading you would look for a negative 3 day force index and positive 13 day force index. ASIA came up last Thurs. as forceswing watch, and rocketed in trading on Friday, Jan 12. It's been in a downtrend since. Average volume is 430 thousand. Last Friday, volume was almost 3 million. The force index is calculated with the price difference multiplied by the volume, so the volume has to be strong to make this reversal.
[Edit]1/19/07 Market Close: ASIA traded relatively flat today, only managing a $.04 gain to close at $8.15. The stock traded with a volume of 180 thousand. Earnings call scheduled for Wednesday, Jan 24.
[Edit]1/19/07 Market Close: ASIA traded relatively flat today, only managing a $.04 gain to close at $8.15. The stock traded with a volume of 180 thousand. Earnings call scheduled for Wednesday, Jan 24.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
ZONE and FLAGS 1/17
UBB Zone pullbacks :
INVX BBC VXGN IFON PFSW TNEN BRLC STEM FORG MSI FMDAD ISON GOAM ICGN
Flags :
CUP OBCI BVSN INSM CTEL PRXI GIGA CBLI SAPE DVW MOBE PTT ACTC SCRA FORD
GREEN hold
Watch RACK on your Fibs Rumpledone :)
INVX BBC VXGN IFON PFSW TNEN BRLC STEM FORG MSI FMDAD ISON GOAM ICGN
Flags :
CUP OBCI BVSN INSM CTEL PRXI GIGA CBLI SAPE DVW MOBE PTT ACTC SCRA FORD
GREEN hold
Watch RACK on your Fibs Rumpledone :)
WATCHES 1/17
Fast%k 14 below 10:
JRCC EMKR DSCM KRY ESCL TWTR HYGS URRE CCUR MED fails : ENCY GERN CNET KONG DXCM SKNN BKHM VG OPSW
Fast%k 2 below 5 :
DSTI FORG PFSW DDSS KRY GIGM WHI fails : DALRQ TWAV DSCM
White Candle below LBB :
INWK TMTA ENTU fails : RSTO ILI SIL ACAD
GREEN hold
JRCC EMKR DSCM KRY ESCL TWTR HYGS URRE CCUR MED fails : ENCY GERN CNET KONG DXCM SKNN BKHM VG OPSW
Fast%k 2 below 5 :
DSTI FORG PFSW DDSS KRY GIGM WHI fails : DALRQ TWAV DSCM
White Candle below LBB :
INWK TMTA ENTU fails : RSTO ILI SIL ACAD
GREEN hold
Monday, January 15, 2007
DAYRANGERS FOR WEEK OF 1/16
NWACQ CPNLQ ONT MAMA ONSM DRL OBCI CBLI EVCC BHIP PFSW DSTI FORG ESCL BVSN CTEL CSLR SGN DKAM LNX MEMY PACT OPBL ICGN MSI MNCS ZICA FMDAD FFHL CPSL
NOTE : Not sure but I've heard CPNLQ is about to lose it's Q
NOTE : Not sure but I've heard CPNLQ is about to lose it's Q
Seriously though, Entries and Exits
Muddy gets a lot of questions on entry and exit strategies. It's hard for him to answer since there are many different trading goals and risk tolerance thresholds.
My entry (from Muddy) on watch stocks that meet my filters/criteria:
Wait for green, green hold, must open green. Whichever works for you. Personally, I like to see a stock that holds green for the first hour or so in the morning. Unless it is a momo screamer, I would rather wait until around 10:30 or so to buy. Not a hard and fast rule, but in general is what I like since a lot of stocks have a small pop in the morning and you can buy a little cheaper if you wait.
GREEN means above the prior day close. Nothing more, nothing less. Above prior close. Green hold applies to all filters. WAIT FOR GREEN. Sure, you could be wrong, it might NOT hold. But you are trying to put the odds in your favor. You are looking for a reversal in the downward trend or a continuation of an upward trend.
Exits, well same again. Is up to you. I can't tell you when to exit, neither can Muddy or others. If you have a 5-10% profit in a few hours/days, then personally, I don't think you should ask other traders when to exit. YOU decide.
IMO, if you are asking, you probably should bank the profit and move on to the next opportunity. If you don't have a large account, or the experience, then take the sure profit. If you have a large trading account, and are comfortable with the risk, then you probably don't have to ask.
One more thing. For the most part, I use (as Muddy does) market, not limit orders. You have to use limit orders of course with some stocks. If the B/A is tight, why chance not getting filled (if using a limit order) for a penny difference? If the B/A for example is 1.30/1.38 like I saw with MFCO in the afternoon on Friday, then I am not a buyer anyway.
My entry (from Muddy) on watch stocks that meet my filters/criteria:
Wait for green, green hold, must open green. Whichever works for you. Personally, I like to see a stock that holds green for the first hour or so in the morning. Unless it is a momo screamer, I would rather wait until around 10:30 or so to buy. Not a hard and fast rule, but in general is what I like since a lot of stocks have a small pop in the morning and you can buy a little cheaper if you wait.
GREEN means above the prior day close. Nothing more, nothing less. Above prior close. Green hold applies to all filters. WAIT FOR GREEN. Sure, you could be wrong, it might NOT hold. But you are trying to put the odds in your favor. You are looking for a reversal in the downward trend or a continuation of an upward trend.
Exits, well same again. Is up to you. I can't tell you when to exit, neither can Muddy or others. If you have a 5-10% profit in a few hours/days, then personally, I don't think you should ask other traders when to exit. YOU decide.
IMO, if you are asking, you probably should bank the profit and move on to the next opportunity. If you don't have a large account, or the experience, then take the sure profit. If you have a large trading account, and are comfortable with the risk, then you probably don't have to ask.
One more thing. For the most part, I use (as Muddy does) market, not limit orders. You have to use limit orders of course with some stocks. If the B/A is tight, why chance not getting filled (if using a limit order) for a penny difference? If the B/A for example is 1.30/1.38 like I saw with MFCO in the afternoon on Friday, then I am not a buyer anyway.
WHITE CANDLE BELOW LBB
This from a few recent Stockfetcher post:
"I know that I can filter for different candlestick patterns, pattern is bullish engulfing for example, but is there a way that I can filter for just a white candle? "
wallman (Muddy)
12/17/2006 8:12:51 PM
I use "where close is above open."
FWIW, I combine it with "and price is below lower bollinger band(20)"
Just as red candles above (floaters) the UBB can find really nice shorting candidates,white ones below the LBB can find some nice longs.
See DGIT 12/12 AOOR HDTV 12/13 MGRM 1/10 FMDAD 1/8 BCON 1/4 and one that hit a double in less than a month ITKG 11/3 for examples of the chart pattern.
This can bring up some nice swing trades.
TELK from 12/29/06 was caught at bottom (plus the fact it finally worked inside the LLB the next day,another really good angle I've mentioned before).
DRL, 5 days down and with increasing volume on the fastk filter and FMDAD also on the fastk and also 5 days down which went unreal the next day both from 1/8
where close is above open and price is below lower bollinger band(20)and volume is greater than 100000 and price is between .30 and 15
offset is 11/3/06
I left the scan offset to 11/3/06 to show the other nice hits that ran even a few weeks after they hit the filter.
Myself I also add average day range(10)is above 3 percent to weed out the "fund" types which sometimes show up on this filter.
Of course add your own volume and price preferences.
"I know that I can filter for different candlestick patterns, pattern is bullish engulfing for example, but is there a way that I can filter for just a white candle? "
wallman (Muddy)
12/17/2006 8:12:51 PM
I use "where close is above open."
FWIW, I combine it with "and price is below lower bollinger band(20)"
Just as red candles above (floaters) the UBB can find really nice shorting candidates,white ones below the LBB can find some nice longs.
See DGIT 12/12 AOOR HDTV 12/13 MGRM 1/10 FMDAD 1/8 BCON 1/4 and one that hit a double in less than a month ITKG 11/3 for examples of the chart pattern.
This can bring up some nice swing trades.
TELK from 12/29/06 was caught at bottom (plus the fact it finally worked inside the LLB the next day,another really good angle I've mentioned before).
DRL, 5 days down and with increasing volume on the fastk filter and FMDAD also on the fastk and also 5 days down which went unreal the next day both from 1/8
where close is above open and price is below lower bollinger band(20)and volume is greater than 100000 and price is between .30 and 15
offset is 11/3/06
I left the scan offset to 11/3/06 to show the other nice hits that ran even a few weeks after they hit the filter.
Myself I also add average day range(10)is above 3 percent to weed out the "fund" types which sometimes show up on this filter.
Of course add your own volume and price preferences.
No exit strategy?
Okay, the markets were closed today and you should already have your watch list for tomorrow, so I am gonna vent a little bit.
I left for work on time, even a few minutes early. Figured with the holiday, no problem, light traffic. My normal 35 minute drive (into the morning sun) should be 25-30 today.
But no! Accident on the interstate 10 miles up the road, right at the exit I take, traffic backed up 8 miles. Heard about it on the radio so I exited early to take an alternate route.
But no! I took the first exit, not the second, to the alternate route (not too familiar with area yet or I might have exited earlier), had to turn around, backtrack and get on the right road.
But no! Radio told everyone to use that route. Totally jammed too. Turned around and exited that situation too and headed home. Over an hour of wasted time. I thought wow, okay, will be nice to stay home today and trade.
But no! THE MARKETS WERE CLOSED!
The moral of the story: "Don't make it a Rumsfeld play," have an exit strategy!
(Prospectus, hope you don't mind the above. Your comment on ONSM was one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time!)
I left for work on time, even a few minutes early. Figured with the holiday, no problem, light traffic. My normal 35 minute drive (into the morning sun) should be 25-30 today.
But no! Accident on the interstate 10 miles up the road, right at the exit I take, traffic backed up 8 miles. Heard about it on the radio so I exited early to take an alternate route.
But no! I took the first exit, not the second, to the alternate route (not too familiar with area yet or I might have exited earlier), had to turn around, backtrack and get on the right road.
But no! Radio told everyone to use that route. Totally jammed too. Turned around and exited that situation too and headed home. Over an hour of wasted time. I thought wow, okay, will be nice to stay home today and trade.
But no! THE MARKETS WERE CLOSED!
The moral of the story: "Don't make it a Rumsfeld play," have an exit strategy!
(Prospectus, hope you don't mind the above. Your comment on ONSM was one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time!)
RE:THE FAST%K FILTER
A recent post to Stockfether regarding the narrowing down of the Fast%k watchlist.
1/15/2007 1:36:20 PM
Hi Dunamis,
you said
"I just change the volume if there are too many results. BUT, I have to say, I find that the majority (90%+) of stocks that the filter throws out (without changing the volume) go up within a five day window. If you back test it by 5 or 6 days you will see what I mean."
I know I've said before that to narrow down lists into a manageable number of matches I've found that bumping up the volume works good for me.
WHAT I forgot to mention is that with a real bottom fishing method such as the Fast%k<10 what I do instead (and please realize I do this because I love the swishy ones and tolerate risk well,I have been trading over 40 years now and RESPECT the market but do not ever FEAR it) is bump up the ADR(10)to get a smaller list of candidates.
Sorry I didn't mention this before but I have so many things I just do naturally , tucked away in the back of my head after so many years of trading,sometimes I forget to mention them.
That's why I'm thinking about writing a book so even I'll remember them, ha.
Anyway check this out:
Now this is from last Monday list,a week ago.
Without the ADR added it returned 54 matches with 45 green, 9 red with 8 over 10% gains. Great in itself but maybe too many to manage for most folks.
So adding ADR(10)>4% cuts it down to 29 matches,only 4 red while losing only 1 10%+ gainer.
Upping the ADR to 8% gives 4 matches, all double digit gainers with an average 3 day hold of 44% and current percent gain of 37%!
Date offset of 12/29 gives a perfect example of bumping up ADR% while dropping off losers but keeping many of the nice gainers.
W/o any ADR the scan gives 49 matches, currently 40 gains/9 losses with 14 double digit gainers. Very nice indeed but a lot of matches.
ADR 3% gives 29 matches, 25 gainers/4 losers with 11 double digit gains. Still real nice.
ADR 4% gives only 14 matches but the win/loss ratio is now 14/2 with 6 being double digit gains. Now it's even nicer if you are looking for a smaller list.
Looking for a very small list of 4 I upped it to ADR 6.9 (yes you can bump by tenths) which shows currently all 4 green with 2 of them double digit hits.
Dunamis, if you are interested in this I can be reached at greenonthescreen AT gmail.com if you have any comments or questions.
P.S. You are right about many of the matches going up in that 5-6 day window, plus many keep going much higher as the days go by.
Witness 1 trading month ago 12/12, VXGN and MNCS are still over 100% each and have never really showed signs of backing down if you look at their charts.
Not to suggest we'd ever hold that long but you never know.
This added for this blog:
BTW, anyone is welcome to post a comment to this or any other post on this blog. You do not need a blogger account to do so.
1/15/2007 1:36:20 PM
Hi Dunamis,
you said
"I just change the volume if there are too many results. BUT, I have to say, I find that the majority (90%+) of stocks that the filter throws out (without changing the volume) go up within a five day window. If you back test it by 5 or 6 days you will see what I mean."
I know I've said before that to narrow down lists into a manageable number of matches I've found that bumping up the volume works good for me.
WHAT I forgot to mention is that with a real bottom fishing method such as the Fast%k<10 what I do instead (and please realize I do this because I love the swishy ones and tolerate risk well,I have been trading over 40 years now and RESPECT the market but do not ever FEAR it) is bump up the ADR(10)to get a smaller list of candidates.
Sorry I didn't mention this before but I have so many things I just do naturally , tucked away in the back of my head after so many years of trading,sometimes I forget to mention them.
That's why I'm thinking about writing a book so even I'll remember them, ha.
Anyway check this out:
Now this is from last Monday list,a week ago.
Without the ADR added it returned 54 matches with 45 green, 9 red with 8 over 10% gains. Great in itself but maybe too many to manage for most folks.
So adding ADR(10)>4% cuts it down to 29 matches,only 4 red while losing only 1 10%+ gainer.
Upping the ADR to 8% gives 4 matches, all double digit gainers with an average 3 day hold of 44% and current percent gain of 37%!
Date offset of 12/29 gives a perfect example of bumping up ADR% while dropping off losers but keeping many of the nice gainers.
W/o any ADR the scan gives 49 matches, currently 40 gains/9 losses with 14 double digit gainers. Very nice indeed but a lot of matches.
ADR 3% gives 29 matches, 25 gainers/4 losers with 11 double digit gains. Still real nice.
ADR 4% gives only 14 matches but the win/loss ratio is now 14/2 with 6 being double digit gains. Now it's even nicer if you are looking for a smaller list.
Looking for a very small list of 4 I upped it to ADR 6.9 (yes you can bump by tenths) which shows currently all 4 green with 2 of them double digit hits.
Dunamis, if you are interested in this I can be reached at greenonthescreen AT gmail.com if you have any comments or questions.
P.S. You are right about many of the matches going up in that 5-6 day window, plus many keep going much higher as the days go by.
Witness 1 trading month ago 12/12, VXGN and MNCS are still over 100% each and have never really showed signs of backing down if you look at their charts.
Not to suggest we'd ever hold that long but you never know.
This added for this blog:
BTW, anyone is welcome to post a comment to this or any other post on this blog. You do not need a blogger account to do so.
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