Friday, January 26, 2007

Stock Watch: CPNLQ, CLWT, IDEV

Hopefully you've been enjoying tremendous gains this week. EVCC was a forceswing watch on 1/24/06. During the day, I'm sure I miss out on quite a few opportunities (TRMM!) , but I've learned that I have to stick with my own trading strategies and plans. As such, I rely on a few filters to give me a few good stocks to watch. Sometimes I enter in the afternoon just before the close, but most times I enter in the morning.

No forceswing candidates for today but I will be watching CPNLQ, CLWT, IDEV and a few others.

Monday, January 22, 2007

Another take on it

Really I almost hate to post this, since there will probably be a dozen questions in chat. Plus, I posted this comment last week:
"Wait for green, green hold, must open green."

Well (wince), I do sometimes buy on RED, but when the RED is more like GREEN, ya know??

K, look at the MEMY chart here from today. Close Friday was 3.46. Went big red today, Monday 01.22.07, went down to a LOD of 3.10. Started moving up, and made a 10/60 cross at 2:30. HUGE volume spike a few minutes later as confirmation (see yellow circles on chart). From deep RED to a close of 3.45, a penny off of Friday's close.

Oh yeah, I can be a buyer on RED when the setup is right. Thing to remember is the dayrangers Muddy puts up are a different breed of stock (at least for the next week or two or three). When they go, they move big, whether that be up or down.

BTW, if you are really reading Muddy's blog posts, he said this on his last dayrangers post:

"Green hold and/or 10/60 sma 5 minute cross"

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Stock Watch: 1/22/07 CDIC

I've posted CDIC on my stocks to watch post prior to reading the discussions here today. Please read the recent post, RE: Squeeze/Volume/Breakouts and the stockfetcher forum for discussions regarding this topic. Based on those discussions, I believe that CDIC is a stock to watch.

CDIC 1/19/2007

I was able to catch CDIC during the day on Friday, 1/19/07, when TRIX(5,3) crossed above its EMA. CDIC made an 18% gain on Friday with volume of 1.6 million vs a 90 day average of 150 thousand shares.

HUGE volume - check
White candle being pierced by the UBB - check

[EDIT]1/22/07 Market Close: CDIC failed to hold GREEN, closed down 2.56% on below average volume.


1/21/2007 1:46:42 PM

Why i don't mind giving up a nice percentage gain to catch them after the breakout.
This from a post almost 3 years ago:

wallman (Muddy)

4/15/2004 11:56:56 AM

note ABIX today which broke out 4-12 on an unreal volume increase of 4500 shares to 746k,yesterday the price pulled back to the EMA13,the stock has maintained its large volume surge over the past few days and today right now it is up about 110% with over 7 million shares traded!,i wouldn't doubt that it will run even further by late afternoon

And a reply:

4/15/2004 3:58:24 PM


Thanks for your insights...

And you were right on ABIX running this afternoon! Up +206+% as I write this (7 min before market close)... Hope you got some of that booty!!!!


From a recent post on the forums regarding the sq/vol/br or the Volatility Breakout as John Bollinger describes it.

1/21/2007 12:59:32 PM

This from:

"Now, for Method I. Years ago the late Bruce Babcock of Commodity Traders Consumers Review interviewed me for that publication. After the interview we chatted for a while--the interviewing gradually reversed--and it came out that his favorite commodity trading approach was the volatility breakout. I could hardly believe my ears. Here is the fellow who had examined more trading systems--and done so rigorously--than anyone with the possible exception of John Hill of Futures Truth and he was saying that his approach of choice to trading was the volatility-breakout system? The very approach that I thought best for trading after a lot of investigation?"

Just what I've been saying for years.

Also this:
"Perhaps the most elegant direct application of Bollinger Bands is a volatility breakout system."
Our version of the venerable volatility breakout system utilizes BandWidth to set the precondition and then takes a position when a breakout occurs."

And what i've always STRONGLY believed:
"Most often this will occur within the bands and you won't get a breakout signal until after the real move is under way."
Note the word "AFTER"

Look at a 3 month chart of LTS, it's the "hot" stock on the message boards NOW.
But myself and the few others I trade with picked it up on 1/8 when it broke the "squeeze" on HUGE volume and white candle being pierced by the UBB.
Factors I've mentioned for years here on the forums.

I'd hate to see this thread die but with ALL DUE RESPECT the last 2 filters posted here show no squeeze in progress on almost all the matches it picks up.
I charted 4 stocks I know from both filters.
From the first ESLR WTSLA ENER DPTR, the second CPST MOT XTO CDE (bands way wide on this?)
The few that are semi-squeezes you'll maybe wait weeks for a validation of a squeeze/break IF EVER.
IMO,Such a waste of time and effort tracking these when you can find ones(and do your DD) the night of the squeeze/break.

Why not get the patterns of a REAL squeeze and wait for the first breakout to occur?