Friday, December 29, 2006

OLAB

Symbol below in watches OLAB is now CPSL

Entering under 11 here again for hopeful run back

WATCHES 12/29

CAMH TGEN CBRX MKTY CLWT SNTO IFON SGU TKO TSTC OLAB PFSW SPDE ZICA
Charts i like for a bounce

on GREEN hold

Watch the ones that fail today for next week for sure.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

WATCHES 12/27

Watching all the "failures" from yesterdays watches.
They are the ones that closed in the red.

Especially SYNM MAMA, also slight green FORG which seems fairly cheap at 1.19

Oh and of course ZICA which may rally more at least 1/2 the day.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

ZICA Monster

STOCKS MENTIONED IN LAST CHAT

I've noticed since we began the live chat,stocks mentioned in a favorable light in the previous chat often ran pretty good when they held GREEN the following day so for the heck of it here's ones mentioned on Fri :

TERN IAAC SYNM GTEM IMMU HTI RHT ONSM XING TNEN ZICA URZ ANDS EXAS ITMN

Monday, December 25, 2006

WATCHES 12/26

ZONE : AOB BIOS CPNLQ FORG GOAM NSOL NWACQ SOFO TGEN TTP

FLAG : CBRX DKAM DSCM MAMA NXG SIGA SYNM TRMM

FAST%K : HYGS ANAD BIOM BLDP OSCI EGHT DSTI IBIS XNN TREN

GREEN HOLD

Saturday, December 23, 2006

THE IMPORTANCE OF KNOWING FORMER RUNNERS

I know most folks that have traded for years have a list of stocks in their heads that once they start to run on volume can just take off.So this post is mainly for the newer traders that haven't been around long enough to have that list in their heads and the feel for how they can trade.
It's my opinion that newer folks spend too much time on too many filters and the backtesting of them.
I feel more time should be spent scanning for stocks each night that gained say over 10% that day on larger than their average volume and charting them to see under which circumstances they ran,such as out of the ema13/sma20 UBB pullack zone,very low rsi2,very low fast%k14,UBB flag pattern or any other indicators you may favor.
Now please check this out:
(11:20) Muddy: ZICA low vol runner at 1.01
This is what I said in the live chat Friday.I knew this stock from the past as a low daily average volume stock that had the ability to run once it started to go with volume as it was starting to do at around 11:20 p.m when I saw it on the high of day list.Look at the 1 day/1 min chart for it on Fri, you'll see I saw it almost at the start of it's run.This because I stay glued to the HOD list most of the time I am in front of the computer trading.This is because it works for me,it's my way and if you find your way then you should stick to it until/if it starts to fail.

(11:42) Muddy: 1.37
(11:47) Muddy: more vol spikes!!
(11:47) Muddy: 1.46

After it runs from $1 to 1.37 it's getting more volume coming in at a furious pace,spiking,in 5 mins it's at 1.46 running off to an unreal hod to 2.30. If you chart ZICA you will see why i remembered it,huge white candles on 2/01 3/20 7/19 9/27 plus 4 more times in 2005. I might have trouble even remembering what day it is but i don't often forget those kind !One other from Fridays chat:
(09:49) Muddy: Laura,watch green for GTEM
(09:50) LauraJ4957: gotcha, am watching
(10:40) Muddy: Laura,GTEM slight green
Laura and I have followed this stock over the last few years and know what it can do.

Look at it 3/16,6 days in a row down,it works itself inside the LBB at 2.33 then opens 3/17 at 2.35 and runs to close at 2.83
On 2/8 it's down 9 days,4 days inside LBB,on 2/9 it finally holds green with volume and goes from 2.65 to 3.34.
On 12/29/05 it's 3 days down,8 of the last 9 and at 2.19. On 12/30 it opens gapping down to 2.01 so i'm thinking another crappy day for it. Not quite,all of a sudden it appears on the HOD list and now it's just gone green. It runs from that 2.20 to close at 3.68! 2 weeks ago on 12/12 it went from 140k shrs to 3.6 mil shrs going from .26 to .43 making it a sq/vol/br watch,the next 2 days it continued up to close at .62 on 12/14. Then on Thurs it became a beautiful Muddy zone watch, the big red candle jammed right between the ema13/sma20, it fell from .36 to .31 quickly but i watched in case it went green. It did at about 10:40 running off to hod .445 closing at .43. The point of all this is to show you that history often does repeat itself in the world of stocks. Remembering former runners can give you a big edge.

Everyone have great Christmas, Muddy




RE: HOW TO FIND THE NEXT ONSM FILTER

Any filter i play i use a 3-4% mental initial stop and same with the trailing stop.
With this filter you should always wait for GREEN hold and watch not only the ones that hit the filter for today but the failures from the last 3 days.To do this date offset 1,2,3 days and look for the ones in red or very small green.These "fails" have a good success rate when they hold green finally.
So for Tues you have the 7 from Fridays results plus fails ESCL TRMM WGDF CUP BPA RBY, a very manageable list of 13. Remember you can't take any filter i post just on sight results alone because it is ONLY a play on green hold,like you see for Fri ESCL was a big loser,that is actually very GOOD. It opened red and never came close to green.The farther they fall as a fail many times the bigger the gain they produce once they hold green.Anyone familiar with our old chatroom associated with the Stockfetcher/Muddy method yahoo group,BNG,will remember how we used to actually hope for a few of the matches to continue not only to fall over the next few days but get hammered.

Friday, December 22, 2006

HOW TO FIND THE NEXT ONSM (and MAMA) :)

A friend with a limited amount of time to chart/research stocks asked me how to find uptrending stocks that have pulled back a bit but if/when they pop they have a good chance of a decent gain over a few days.
I suggested he play around with this:

price lost between 3 and 7 percent over the last 1 day and close is above ema(13)and rsi(2)is above 50 and volume is greater than 200000 and close is between 1 and 15
date offset is 0

As you'll see it doesn't give a bunch of matches but can give some nice hits
Remember, GREEN hold/Average or above the stocks daily volume.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

WATCHES 12/22

SYNM CPNLQ TRMM ROHI DCTH FORG LOCM TSTC DKAM MOVI ITKG SOFO URZ
Penny GTEM

All have been hit some in recent day/days
Wait for GREEN hold.

WATCHES 12/21

On the top of my watches from charts i find interesting:

MEMY WBTO PANC ACOR URXE GTEM TERN UFI HIMX GNVC

GREEN hold/avg. or above vol

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

RE: HIGH FLAG POST 12/15

Of the 20 stocks listed in the High Flag 12/15 post, today there were HAYZ 4% GNVC 38% MAMA 7% SKNN 11% NYNY 4% ALIF 15% TSTC 11% and for the 3 day gains there are NYNY 12% ALIF 19% MAMA 35% TSTC 40% GNVC 56%.

These are volatile stocks i watch/play,please remember that if you are newer to trading,they can run big in a very short time, and being volatile they can fall just as fast.
Always use the stop of your choice and only play these very small until you have the confidence to do otherwise.

Remember until the stock has broken the flag pattern it should be kept on watch for a new entry.
Some like SKNN will break that flag pattern to the downside but the good news is that many of these, like SKNN did, then turn into ZONE ( ema13/sma20 ) plays.

Muddy

Monday, December 18, 2006

A FEW ZONE PULLBACKS FOR 12/18

4 volatile stocks in the zone : XNN PXPL SKNN NWACQ

Of course i'll wait for GREEN hold on large vol/and or vol spikes.

Friday, December 15, 2006

HIGH FLAGS

Was reading a thread last night on Stockfetcher titled high tight flags, my version doesn't exactly match up with the filters in the thread,i like a very short " flag " length, here's the 20 i came up with for today :

HAYZ GNVC ISIS MAMA SKNN HTI MVIS WFII KONG ROHI NYNY ALIF MIVT ONNN TTP MOVI XNN ISPH BIOS TSTC

Thursday, December 14, 2006

UBB ZONE PULLBACKS 12/15

DALRQ AOB XNN QLTI ALTH AUY INPC EVCC ARQL PXPL VIFL NSLT BIOS OXGN CAPA EXAS EGIL CLWT CNTF TRCA CAU MOBE HEB TSTC CMGI SGEN PMU URZ

The zone pullbacks for 12/14 did excellent posting a 18 - 10 win/loss ratio with FRPT 18% STEC 11% GNVC 10% being the leading gainers.

Is there anyone out there playing/watching these zone pullbacks,if so are you getting mostly these same stocks from your scans ? Leave a comment in the blog if you're following them.
Thanks, Muddy

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

FAV LIST STOCKS

CLWT EGHT FORG FRPT HANS INSM JDO MNG NEOL PRGX PTN STEM TGEN THLD TMY URRE URZ WWAT XSNX ZVUE

These i'm watching close for green hold, a few may bounce good as they've taken a hit of late


UBB ZONE PULLBACKS 12/14

BRLC QLTI DVAX WTSLA CAPA ALTH CHINA STEC IEDU SVNT FRPT AUY BWLRF INPC TARO EVCC CNTF ARQL PXPL VIFL GNVC NSLT MOBE BIOS CVV AMCC OXGN ENCY

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

THE POINT OF FOCUSING

This only applies to the folks that can watch the market during the day but i think if folks would focus in on the stocks they know can run much better than the avg stock ( for me it's the ones on my favorites list ) and pay attention to things like volume spikes, higher than normal volume, even dollar and 50 cent crosses on the smaller ones, NEW HOD'S , going green after a few days down and/or going green after sitting still for an hour or so, and bid jumping above ask even as the price does not rise,etc. they could up their gains considerably.

These are some of the things i pointed out on stocks from my favorites list in our chat in the last 2 days
Monday :
(09:44) Muddy: NWACQ went green 5 cross ... from that $5 green cross it closed at 5.70 and to 6.54 hod today.
(09:59) Muddy: GOAM vol coming here 8 ... it ran to 9.24 in a few hours.
(10:47) Muddy: IEAM 4.3 from fastk fri
(10:48) Muddy: well inside lbb now ... getting vol spikes there it ran to close at 4.80
(11:10) Muddy: MAMA action again over 2.5 ... the action was vol spiking and the bid jumping over ask repeatedly. From that 2.50 we all know where it is now. Then just 5 minutes later:
(11:15) Muddy: EFJI hod 6.13 vol scan ... It then went to 7.08 closing at 6.80
(11:45) Muddy: lower avg vol HAYZ a MZ bounce moving back up from 3,on vol scan ... gapped up at open,came back to $3 then went to 3.64 closing at 3.50
(12:10) Muddy: XNN near hod ... on my watch because a momo from recent sq/vol/break,it ran from the price then 3.65 to 3.98 in 30 mins,closing at 4.05
(12:31) Muddy: NRPH 56 may be good few % new 52s ... good it was closing at 57.95 after hitting 5914 quickly.

Today :
(09:42) Muddy: HTI hod 6.4 ... another momo recent sq/vol/break it ran to 7.15 quickly closing at 6.99
(11:19) Muddy: ROHI pop 2.4 ... hod 2 day ago sq/vol/break on favorites list also it quickly ran to 2.94,closing at 2.50
(13:47) Muddy: watch CVDT at 3.4 hod(13:47) Muddy: new issue has vol ... right to close at 3.58
(15:10) Muddy: fav CNLG hod 2.5 ... only 50 mins until close it closes at 2.75
(15:13) Muddy: fav CLWT hod 3.82 ... only 3 mins later i see this one at 3.82 it hits hod before close 4.05(15:54) Muddy: HLYS hod 32 (15:54) Muddy: closing strong ... Only 6 mins left this momo new issue gives 2% at a 32.60 close.

I realize i have decades of trading experiance and know many of these stocks like the back of my hand but newer folks should take note,concentrate on stocks you know up to this point and the things that seem to make them go.

Muddy








% VOLUME INCREASES

I really like volume stocks,especially combined with recent swishy stocks, breaks up the boredom and makes the day fly by,ha
These are the ones i'll watch for possible daytrades :
NSLT PXPL MDFI RGRP PRNW MIVT UFI GSOL TBIO VNDA TARO HAYZ EFJI GOAM XNN IEAM SKNN FORG CMOS NWACQ NEOL NUVO

STOCKS I'M WATCHING CLOSELY 12/12

high on my list of go on GREEN for 12/12 are :

LBTS - needs better vol than the last 10 days but a watch because it got hit again today and fastk now under 10 and it ran big in that situation on 10/16

URRE - 3 days down but still clinging to the MZ,this one runs when it gets going.

UNWK - hit the last 2 days,very close to the MZ, if it catches green it can go big at times,very good dayranger.

ISON - 3 red candles but another clinging to the MZ,vol better than in last week, a former sq/vol/break 11/20

AQUA - need a tight bid/ask,was a big momo play last week,now in the MZ

EFJI - huge white candle ,bb's clamped down on it 12/5 suggesting a move that it got yesterday, pure momo play,huge vol increase Monday. Closed eod very strong,might gap some at open,watch for $7 break

MEMY - Huge dayranger gave back it's gains Monday, still in tight bb squeeze,may hold gains today.

XNN - Not out of UBB yet, a threat at the $4 cross it hit at eod.

MKTY - hit the last 7 days yet fastk still pretty high on it,seen ones like that have a good run on green, in the MZ still

wait for GREEN or whatever indicators you use.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

HIGHER PRICED STOCKS THAT HIT MY FILTERS

FASTK Filter : RACK NDAQ AVR NURO
RSI2 : BEAS PEIX
ZONE Filter : RMBS FRPT IOC UAUA RVBD CAL ISE

ADDED A LINK

Note i've added a link to Movethemarkets which i feel is a very fine site.
It concentrates on "higher" priced stocks over $10 which i don't often talk about but love to follow/trade,exactly the ones Richard follows there, high volume intraday % movers, which i classify as "dayrangers".
Over the last few years i've found a few chart patterns that can move these stocks well.
One is the fastk 14<10 which works as well on these kind as it does with the under $20 stocks.
A great example is UAUA, the LAST time this stock ever hit fastk 14<10 was 8/11 at $22.33
It has NEVER traded that low since !
Also interesting is if you have been following along with my Muddy Zone ( MZ ) , that's the ema13/sma20 area, you'll see that UAUA after becoming a Squeeze/volume increase/price breakout on 9/12 ( white candle pierced by the UBB and contrary to many beliefs with an RSI2 in the 90's ) has bounced EVERY single time it has hit it !
So just on the UAUA chart we have 3 very powerful at times chart patterns that can move these higher priced stocks :
(1) Fast%k14 below 10
(2 ) MZ = ema13/sma20 on a pullback from the UBB
( 3 ) Sq/Vol/Breaks

There's another pattern i call the "Goal Post" but that'll have to wait for later. It's a beautiful day here and my dogs are ready to rock so it's off to the park. Have a great day,
Muddy

Saturday, December 9, 2006

TRADES FOR CHARTING


These are recent trades i made in a port,in the old chat i was in,BNG,folks asked to see some charts of stocks which i considered as possible trades so they could back chart them to see if they could see what i saw,so i will do that here.

OPEN TRADES:

· ROHI 57.53%

Industry: Home Health Care
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 1.46 by Muddy on 11/27/06 09:17

· NWACQ 51.23%

Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 3.24 by Muddy on 12/04/06 09:03

· CMOS 25.57%

Industry: Semiconductor Equip Matrl
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 3.95 by Muddy on 12/08/06 08:50

· GROW 23.97%

Industry: Asset Management
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 48.4 by Muddy on 11/27/06 09:16

· THLD 14.18%

Industry: Diagnostic Substances
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 2.61 by Muddy on 11/18/06 22:46

· XNN 12.96%

Industry: Home Furnishings Fixtures
Outlook: Long Tags: momo at 3.01 by Muddy on 12/06/06 09:25

· LVLT 12.14%

Industry: Processing Systems Prods
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 5.19 by Muddy on 11/18/06 21:59

· MVIS 11.03%

Industry: Diversified Electronics
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 2.72 by Muddy on 11/27/06 09:16

· MEMY 9.17%

Industry: Biotechnology
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 2.29 by Muddy on 11/27/06 09:17

· ZIXI 7.14%

Industry: Internet Software and Svcs
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 1.12 by Muddy on 11/28/06 09:03

· ENCY 6.44%

Industry: Biotechnology
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 6.06 by Muddy on 12/08/06 08:48

· CHTR 5.83%

Industry: CATV Systems
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 3.09 by Muddy on 12/06/06 09:24

· CNR 4.92%

Industry: Independent Oil and Gas
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 1.22 by Muddy on 12/05/06 09:23

· DSCO 4.04%

Industry: Biotechnology
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 2.23 by Muddy on 11/18/06 22:02

· FNSR 3.24%

Industry: Networking and Commun Dvcs
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 3.4 by Muddy on 12/04/06 09:01

CLOSED TRADES:

· CTIC 10.17%

Industry: Biotechnology
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 1.77 by Muddy on 12/04/06 09:04

· MSPD 8.38%

Industry: Semiconductor Equip Matrl
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 1.67 by Muddy on 12/04/06 09:01

· ISON 4.11%

Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 0.73 by Muddy on 11/28/06 22:09

· DVAX 32.30%

Industry: Drug Manufacturers Other
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 7.4 by Muddy on 11/28/06 22:07

· CTDC 2.36%

Industry: Business Software and Svcs
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 7.63 by Muddy on 11/28/06 22:07

· BRLC 8.14%

Industry: Processing Systems Prods
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 8.6 by Muddy on 11/28/06 22:06

· CPST 6.98%

Industry: Industrial Electrical Eqp
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 1.29 by Muddy on 11/28/06 09:03

· SOFO 3.93%

Industry: Application Software
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 3.56 by Muddy on 11/28/06 09:03

· ISIS 12.87%

Industry: Drug Manufacturers Other
Outlook: Long Tags: UBB Pullback at 10.41 by Muddy on 11/27/06 09:19

· MAMA 4.19%

Industry: Diversified Commun Svcs
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 2.15 by Muddy on 11/27/06 09:17

· CLWT 36.93%

Industry: Wholesale Other
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 2.87 by Muddy on 11/22/06 08:38

· PARL 2.67%

Industry: Personal Products
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 6.37 by Muddy on 11/22/06 07:34

· CYBX 3.90%

Industry: Medical Appliances Equip
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 24.63 by Muddy on 11/22/06 07:33

· CRAY 15.73%

Industry: Diversified Computer Sys
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 9.92 by Muddy on 11/22/06 07:32

· BEAS 5.98%

Industry: Business Software and Svcs
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 13.22 by Muddy on 11/22/06 07:31

· CCUR 2.12%

Industry: Computer Based Systems
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 1.84 by Muddy on 11/18/06 22:45

· MNG 13.41%

Industry: Gold
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 4.55 by Muddy on 11/18/06 22:01

· ERS 6.39%

Industry: Aluminum
Outlook: Long Tags: long at 9.7 by Muddy on 11/18/06 21:56