VOLUME

From a recent SF forum post:

Muddy:
Yeah, and the neat thing is how the volume in premarket gave the indication of the action for CTTD on Tuesday.

From the chat yesterday:

"Here are the picks Muddy put up before I started logging the chat today."
MUDDY’S PICKS FOR TODAY:

CTTD EVCC SCRA LFXG GIGA CBRE SEED QLTY RGBL RDWR DCNAQ GEPT LOCM MSI SNSS GMET ESCL OBCI SRLM WAVE

Muddy said CTTD or one of these should do 100%, either UP or DOWN. Luckily for us in chat, he was pretty close on the UP side! He is talking about CTTD below at the beginning of the log."

(Jan 30-09:19) Muddy: this could be interesting
(Jan 30-09:20) Muddy: 2.5 mil shrs now

Note that that was posted BEFORE the open.
CTTD opened at 1.02 and closed at it's hod at 1.65 on 12.2 mil shares up from 729,000 the day before!
The second watch from that list,EVCC another good gainer for the day,also had very good premarket volume.

Alot of beating this game comes from VOLUME folks.

From the same scan today I have RGBL CBRE LFXG GNSS VLTR ZANE COOL EDNE ECR TBV EMFP TVIA PXLW CUP

I will be watching premarket/opening volume again on these.
Please understand this method/stocks is not for newer folks that don't understand you must watch these stocks closely all day if you enter one.
Trail them up with your stop and let them run when they are at or near their hod's

Long, long trades

I trade long too. I don't have the time or energy to only swing trade. In my IRA accounts I own mutual funds and less volatile stocks. Are most traders this way? I think so.

For example, I know that Muddy planned to take the summer off from trading in 2005. That summer turned into a 16 month vacation for him. But I am fairly sure he didn't have his money in a bank account or CDs during that time, but instead in quality stocks and mutual funds.

So yes, less volatility, but I am still looking for winners here. Here is a chart of BAM.

I bought at $25 in March 2005. I've got a double in less than 2 years, and I don't need to monitor it very often. That's better than most mutual funds. I still like it and continue to add shares.

A couple others in the Real Estate Holding/Trust sector I am looking at are CBG, ACP, and SLG.


Love to hear from others on what you have on watch/buy list for long term holds!

High Flag Watch

Sammy doing his Sunday evening scan for HIGH flags!

HIGH FLAGS 1/29

RFMD OPBL XOMA TRMM CNLG DOVP XNL ION KOPN YTBL DORB AENS ICGE TRCR NTMD DHBT


Descending order of Fridays volume.Watch for volume % increases on lower volume ones.

GREEN hold and/or 10/60 5 minute sma cross

Check out the EVCC flag on the chart above. A nice flag setup on 1.23.


See it here on 01.26. Whoa.......

EMA13/SMA20 UBB ZONE PULLBACKS 1/29

HOKU USSE CVDT FRG NXXI XSNX IMMU MPRG LTS BNVI YMI ICAD VEGF RNIN DOIG SMD BHIP NICH STKR HIHO

In descending order of Fridays volume,watch for volume% increases on lower volume ones.
GREEN hold and/or 10/60 5 minute sma cross.

Here's a chart of NTMD, a great example of a zone pullback from a breakout. Pullback into zone on 1/22/07 @ around 2.66 it took off on green the next day,going to a close of 3.64 a week later,then it pulled back into the zone again on 2/6/07 around 3.30 area where it went to a high of 4.31 5 days later.

Edit: because of the increasing volatility in stocks the last year the zone has been slightly widened and for better visabilty to EMA10/SMA30

If you look at the current chart you will see it is now a flag watch.

CHATROOM ALERTS

This past week we had some really great headsup.
2 of the most awesome were:

(Jan 24-10:49) TraderJJ: CNLG pop on news

At the time of this news alert the price was in the area of 2.36,later in the day it hit a high of 4.40!!
Thank you JJ

(Jan 26-15:23) loki3361: LOCM MSFT news

(Jan 26-15:24) Muddy: whoa

At the time of this news alert the price was in the 3.10 to 3.40 range, in less than 15 minutes it hit 5.03!!
Thank you Loki

FAST%K FILTER WATCHES

XMSR CCUR STSI BRLC IDGJ GSX WSTL FORG EGIL TWTR INWK GPXM BIPH LMRA GGR NMGC HYGS SOFO MAMA IIG

GREEN hold and/or 10/60 5 minute sma cross.

DAYRANGERS I'M WATCHING FOR A POP THIS WEEK

FORG CNLG GGR BMD ETLY INNO ARTX HOKU NWACQ OPBL TRMM ONT PFSW SYNM IOTN YMI CYTR RGBL DRL SKNN

GREEN hold and/or 10/60 sma 5 minute cross.

DAYRANGERS FOR WEEK 1/29

ZANE EVCC CPNLQ STSI HOKU NWACQ OPBL TRMM LOCM SGN CNLG CFHI CVDT SUF XNL ALIF YTBL ETLY INNO BNVI

ADR (10)>10%

EVCC posted a 100% week from the dayranger list last week,still a watch

Stock Watch: CPNLQ, CLWT, IDEV

Hopefully you've been enjoying tremendous gains this week. EVCC was a forceswing watch on 1/24/06. During the day, I'm sure I miss out on quite a few opportunities (TRMM!) , but I've learned that I have to stick with my own trading strategies and plans. As such, I rely on a few filters to give me a few good stocks to watch. Sometimes I enter in the afternoon just before the close, but most times I enter in the morning.

No forceswing candidates for today but I will be watching CPNLQ, CLWT, IDEV and a few others.

Another take on it

Really I almost hate to post this, since there will probably be a dozen questions in chat. Plus, I posted this comment last week:
"Wait for green, green hold, must open green."

Well (wince), I do sometimes buy on RED, but when the RED is more like GREEN, ya know??

K, look at the MEMY chart here from today. Close Friday was 3.46. Went big red today, Monday 01.22.07, went down to a LOD of 3.10. Started moving up, and made a 10/60 cross at 2:30. HUGE volume spike a few minutes later as confirmation (see yellow circles on chart). From deep RED to a close of 3.45, a penny off of Friday's close.

Oh yeah, I can be a buyer on RED when the setup is right. Thing to remember is the dayrangers Muddy puts up are a different breed of stock (at least for the next week or two or three). When they go, they move big, whether that be up or down.

BTW, if you are really reading Muddy's blog posts, he said this on his last dayrangers post:

"Green hold and/or 10/60 sma 5 minute cross"

Stock Watch: 1/22/07 CDIC

I've posted CDIC on my stocks to watch post prior to reading the discussions here today. Please read the recent post, RE: Squeeze/Volume/Breakouts and the stockfetcher forum for discussions regarding this topic. Based on those discussions, I believe that CDIC is a stock to watch.

I was able to catch CDIC during the day on Friday, 1/19/07, when TRIX(5,3) crossed above its EMA. CDIC made an 18% gain on Friday with volume of 1.6 million vs a 90 day average of 150 thousand shares.

HUGE volume - check
White candle being pierced by the UBB - check

[EDIT]1/22/07 Market Close: CDIC failed to hold GREEN, closed down 2.56% on below average volume.

3 YEARS AGO IT WORKED AND IS STILL WORKING

Muddy
1/21/2007 1:46:42 PM

Why i don't mind giving up a nice percentage gain to catch them after the breakout.
This from a post almost 3 years ago:

wallman (Muddy)

4/15/2004 11:56:56 AM

note ABIX today which broke out 4-12 on an unreal volume increase of 4500 shares to 746k,yesterday the price pulled back to the EMA13,the stock has maintained its large volume surge over the past few days and today right now it is up about 110% with over 7 million shares traded!,i wouldn't doubt that it will run even further by late afternoon

And a reply:

4/15/2004 3:58:24 PM

wallman,

Thanks for your insights...

And you were right on ABIX running this afternoon! Up +206+% as I write this (7 min before market close)... Hope you got some of that booty!!!!

RE: SQUEEZE/VOLUME/BREAKOUTS

From a recent post on the Stockfetcher.com forums regarding the sq/vol/br or the Volatility Breakout as John Bollinger describes it.

Muddy
1/21/2007 12:59:32 PM

This from:
http://www.bollingeronbollingerbands.com/methods/

"Now, for Method I. Years ago the late Bruce Babcock of Commodity Traders Consumers Review interviewed me for that publication. After the interview we chatted for a while--the interviewing gradually reversed--and it came out that his favorite commodity trading approach was the volatility breakout. I could hardly believe my ears. Here is the fellow who had examined more trading systems--and done so rigorously--than anyone with the possible exception of John Hill of Futures Truth and he was saying that his approach of choice to trading was the volatility-breakout system? The very approach that I thought best for trading after a lot of investigation?"

Just what I've been saying for years.

Also this:
"Perhaps the most elegant direct application of Bollinger Bands is a volatility breakout system."
Our version of the venerable volatility breakout system utilizes BandWidth to set the precondition and then takes a position when a breakout occurs."

And what i've always STRONGLY believed:
"Most often this will occur within the bands and you won't get a breakout signal until after the real move is under way."
Note the word "AFTER"

Look at a 3 month chart of LTS, it's the "hot" stock on the message boards NOW.
But myself and the few others I trade with picked it up on 1/8 when it broke the "squeeze" on HUGE volume and white candle being pierced by the UBB.
Factors I've mentioned for years here on the forums.

I'd hate to see this thread die but with ALL DUE RESPECT the last 2 filters posted here show no squeeze in progress on almost all the matches it picks up.
I charted 4 stocks I know from both filters.
From the first ESLR WTSLA ENER DPTR, the second CPST MOT XTO CDE (bands way wide on this?)
The few that are semi-squeezes you'll maybe wait weeks for a validation of a squeeze/break IF EVER.
IMO,Such a waste of time and effort tracking these when you can find ones(and do your DD) the night of the squeeze/break.

Why not get the patterns of a REAL squeeze and wait for the first breakout to occur?

CWTR

Just like the "floating" red candle above the UBB is often the kiss of death for awhile with many stocks,see recent charts for NTMD LVLT GIGA BVSN MCEL, the floating white candle below the LBB can be a good angle for a rise in price.
CWTR formed such a candle on Friday.
It's not normally a good dayranger and it's a $20 stock but MLS was in the same situation on 1/10 but rose from 15.47 to 22.46 in just 4 days.
FMDAD launched from there on 1/9, then sold off big after more than half (usually as bad as a floater if the red candle is big enough) its red candle was out of the UBB on 1/10.

DAY RANGER WATCHLIST 1/22

Ones at the top of my list ranked in descending order of volume from Friday:

HOKU EVCC ACTC FORG ONT VEGF CYTR PFSW ZIXI BVSN SOLM TERN MIVT OBCI RMDX EGHT MEMY DKAM HIHO RNIN

Green hold and/or 10/60 sma 5 minute cross

Stock Watch: ASIA 1/19/07

ASIA is on my watch list for trading Friday Jan 19. It came up as a forceswing candidate. As previously mentioned, using the force index for short term trading you would look for a negative 3 day force index and positive 13 day force index. ASIA came up last Thurs. as forceswing watch, and rocketed in trading on Friday, Jan 12. It's been in a downtrend since. Average volume is 430 thousand. Last Friday, volume was almost 3 million. The force index is calculated with the price difference multiplied by the volume, so the volume has to be strong to make this reversal.

[Edit]1/19/07 Market Close: ASIA traded relatively flat today, only managing a $.04 gain to close at $8.15. The stock traded with a volume of 180 thousand. Earnings call scheduled for Wednesday, Jan 24.

ZONE and FLAGS 1/17

UBB Zone pullbacks :
INVX BBC VXGN IFON PFSW TNEN BRLC STEM FORG MSI FMDAD ISON GOAM ICGN

Flags :
CUP OBCI BVSN INSM CTEL PRXI GIGA CBLI SAPE DVW MOBE PTT ACTC SCRA FORD

GREEN hold

Watch RACK on your Fibs Rumpledone :)

WATCHES 1/17

Fast%k 14 below 10:
JRCC EMKR DSCM KRY ESCL TWTR HYGS URRE CCUR MED fails : ENCY GERN CNET KONG DXCM SKNN BKHM VG OPSW

Fast%k 2 below 5 :
DSTI FORG PFSW DDSS KRY GIGM WHI fails : DALRQ TWAV DSCM

White Candle below LBB :
INWK TMTA ENTU fails : RSTO ILI SIL ACAD

GREEN hold

DAYRANGERS FOR WEEK OF 1/16

NWACQ CPNLQ ONT MAMA ONSM DRL OBCI CBLI EVCC BHIP PFSW DSTI FORG ESCL BVSN CTEL CSLR SGN DKAM LNX MEMY PACT OPBL ICGN MSI MNCS ZICA FMDAD FFHL CPSL

NOTE : Not sure but I've heard CPNLQ is about to lose it's Q