Friday, January 19, 2007

Stock Watch: ASIA 1/19/07

ASIA is on my watch list for trading Friday Jan 19. It came up as a forceswing candidate. As previously mentioned, using the force index for short term trading you would look for a negative 3 day force index and positive 13 day force index. ASIA came up last Thurs. as forceswing watch, and rocketed in trading on Friday, Jan 12. It's been in a downtrend since. Average volume is 430 thousand. Last Friday, volume was almost 3 million. The force index is calculated with the price difference multiplied by the volume, so the volume has to be strong to make this reversal.

[Edit]1/19/07 Market Close: ASIA traded relatively flat today, only managing a $.04 gain to close at $8.15. The stock traded with a volume of 180 thousand. Earnings call scheduled for Wednesday, Jan 24.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

ZONE and FLAGS 1/17

UBB Zone pullbacks :
INVX BBC VXGN IFON PFSW TNEN BRLC STEM FORG MSI FMDAD ISON GOAM ICGN

Flags :
CUP OBCI BVSN INSM CTEL PRXI GIGA CBLI SAPE DVW MOBE PTT ACTC SCRA FORD

GREEN hold

Watch RACK on your Fibs Rumpledone :)

WATCHES 1/17

Fast%k 14 below 10:
JRCC EMKR DSCM KRY ESCL TWTR HYGS URRE CCUR MED fails : ENCY GERN CNET KONG DXCM SKNN BKHM VG OPSW

Fast%k 2 below 5 :
DSTI FORG PFSW DDSS KRY GIGM WHI fails : DALRQ TWAV DSCM

White Candle below LBB :
INWK TMTA ENTU fails : RSTO ILI SIL ACAD

GREEN hold

Monday, January 15, 2007

DAYRANGERS FOR WEEK OF 1/16

NWACQ CPNLQ ONT MAMA ONSM DRL OBCI CBLI EVCC BHIP PFSW DSTI FORG ESCL BVSN CTEL CSLR SGN DKAM LNX MEMY PACT OPBL ICGN MSI MNCS ZICA FMDAD FFHL CPSL

NOTE : Not sure but I've heard CPNLQ is about to lose it's Q

Seriously though, Entries and Exits

Muddy gets a lot of questions on entry and exit strategies. It's hard for him to answer since there are many different trading goals and risk tolerance thresholds.

My entry (from Muddy) on watch stocks that meet my filters/criteria:

Wait for green, green hold, must open green. Whichever works for you. Personally, I like to see a stock that holds green for the first hour or so in the morning. Unless it is a momo screamer, I would rather wait until around 10:30 or so to buy. Not a hard and fast rule, but in general is what I like since a lot of stocks have a small pop in the morning and you can buy a little cheaper if you wait.

GREEN means above the prior day close. Nothing more, nothing less. Above prior close. Green hold applies to all filters. WAIT FOR GREEN. Sure, you could be wrong, it might NOT hold. But you are trying to put the odds in your favor. You are looking for a reversal in the downward trend or a continuation of an upward trend.

Exits, well same again. Is up to you. I can't tell you when to exit, neither can Muddy or others. If you have a 5-10% profit in a few hours/days, then personally, I don't think you should ask other traders when to exit. YOU decide.

IMO, if you are asking, you probably should bank the profit and move on to the next opportunity. If you don't have a large account, or the experience, then take the sure profit. If you have a large trading account, and are comfortable with the risk, then you probably don't have to ask.

One more thing. For the most part, I use (as Muddy does) market, not limit orders. You have to use limit orders of course with some stocks. If the B/A is tight, why chance not getting filled (if using a limit order) for a penny difference? If the B/A for example is 1.30/1.38 like I saw with MFCO in the afternoon on Friday, then I am not a buyer anyway.

WHITE CANDLE BELOW LBB

This from a few recent Stockfetcher post:

"I know that I can filter for different candlestick patterns, pattern is bullish engulfing for example, but is there a way that I can filter for just a white candle? "
wallman (Muddy)
12/17/2006 8:12:51 PM

I use "where close is above open."
FWIW, I combine it with "and price is below lower bollinger band(20)"

Just as red candles above (floaters) the UBB can find really nice shorting candidates,white ones below the LBB can find some nice longs.
See DGIT 12/12 AOOR HDTV 12/13 MGRM 1/10 FMDAD 1/8 BCON 1/4 and one that hit a double in less than a month ITKG 11/3 for examples of the chart pattern.

This can bring up some nice swing trades.
TELK from 12/29/06 was caught at bottom (plus the fact it finally worked inside the LLB the next day,another really good angle I've mentioned before).
DRL, 5 days down and with increasing volume on the fastk filter and FMDAD also on the fastk and also 5 days down which went unreal the next day both from 1/8

where close is above open and price is below lower bollinger band(20)and volume is greater than 100000 and price is between .30 and 15
offset is 11/3/06


I left the scan offset to 11/3/06 to show the other nice hits that ran even a few weeks after they hit the filter.
Myself I also add average day range(10)is above 3 percent to weed out the "fund" types which sometimes show up on this filter.
Of course add your own volume and price preferences.

No exit strategy?

Okay, the markets were closed today and you should already have your watch list for tomorrow, so I am gonna vent a little bit.

I left for work on time, even a few minutes early. Figured with the holiday, no problem, light traffic. My normal 35 minute drive (into the morning sun) should be 25-30 today.

But no! Accident on the interstate 10 miles up the road, right at the exit I take, traffic backed up 8 miles. Heard about it on the radio so I exited early to take an alternate route.

But no! I took the first exit, not the second, to the alternate route (not too familiar with area yet or I might have exited earlier), had to turn around, backtrack and get on the right road.

But no! Radio told everyone to use that route. Totally jammed too. Turned around and exited that situation too and headed home. Over an hour of wasted time. I thought wow, okay, will be nice to stay home today and trade.

But no! THE MARKETS WERE CLOSED!

The moral of the story: "Don't make it a Rumsfeld play," have an exit strategy!

(Prospectus, hope you don't mind the above. Your comment on ONSM was one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time!)

RE:THE FAST%K FILTER

A recent post to Stockfether regarding the narrowing down of the Fast%k watchlist.

1/15/2007 1:36:20 PM

Hi Dunamis,
you said
"I just change the volume if there are too many results. BUT, I have to say, I find that the majority (90%+) of stocks that the filter throws out (without changing the volume) go up within a five day window. If you back test it by 5 or 6 days you will see what I mean."

I know I've said before that to narrow down lists into a manageable number of matches I've found that bumping up the volume works good for me.
WHAT I forgot to mention is that with a real bottom fishing method such as the Fast%k<10 what I do instead (and please realize I do this because I love the swishy ones and tolerate risk well,I have been trading over 40 years now and RESPECT the market but do not ever FEAR it) is bump up the ADR(10)to get a smaller list of candidates.
Sorry I didn't mention this before but I have so many things I just do naturally , tucked away in the back of my head after so many years of trading,sometimes I forget to mention them.
That's why I'm thinking about writing a book so even I'll remember them, ha.

Anyway check this out:

Fetcher[show stocks where fast stochastic fast %k(14) is below 10 and volume is above 400000 and close is between 1 and 10 date offset is 1/8/07
and sort column 5 descending
average day range(10)is above 8 percent
]

Now this is from last Monday list,a week ago.
Without the ADR added it returned 54 matches with 45 green, 9 red with 8 over 10% gains. Great in itself but maybe too many to manage for most folks.
So adding ADR(10)>4% cuts it down to 29 matches,only 4 red while losing only 1 10%+ gainer.
Upping the ADR to 8% gives 4 matches, all double digit gainers with an average 3 day hold of 44% and current percent gain of 37%!

Date offset of 12/29 gives a perfect example of bumping up ADR% while dropping off losers but keeping many of the nice gainers.
W/o any ADR the scan gives 49 matches, currently 40 gains/9 losses with 14 double digit gainers. Very nice indeed but a lot of matches.
ADR 3% gives 29 matches, 25 gainers/4 losers with 11 double digit gains. Still real nice.
ADR 4% gives only 14 matches but the win/loss ratio is now 14/2 with 6 being double digit gains. Now it's even nicer if you are looking for a smaller list.
Looking for a very small list of 4 I upped it to ADR 6.9 (yes you can bump by tenths) which shows currently all 4 green with 2 of them double digit hits.

Dunamis, if you are interested in this I can be reached at greenonthescreen AT gmail.com if you have any comments or questions.

P.S. You are right about many of the matches going up in that 5-6 day window, plus many keep going much higher as the days go by.
Witness 1 trading month ago 12/12, VXGN and MNCS are still over 100% each and have never really showed signs of backing down if you look at their charts.
Not to suggest we'd ever hold that long but you never know.

This added for this blog:
BTW, anyone is welcome to post a comment to this or any other post on this blog. You do not need a blogger account to do so.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Stock Watch: BRLC 1/12/07

Lately, I've been using the force index as an additional indicator to find those stocks ready for reversal.

Additionally, I look for a negative 3 day force index, positive 13 day force index and a positive slope on the 3 day force index. Meeting my force index criteria for tomorrow is one of Muddy's favorites, BRLC. Using Elle's 10/60 screen, it looks like there was cross at 3pm. If it picks up some volume, it could be on the way up again.

WELCOME mstrader!

We have invited mstrader to be a contributor on our blog.

Muddy and I really like the blog, very good watches, and the blog follows the way we like to trade.

Check out mstrader's "fail" DSTI!

Sweet....

Looking forward to mstrader's posts here!

HOLDING OVERNIGHT

From a post at Stockfetcher from someone asking about holding over night on big breakouts.

"What about BHIP?
But do you hold them overnight?"

Holding overnight for me depends on a few things but mainly if a stock is in a huge 1 day breakout like FMDAD was on it's FIRST breakout day AND it held it's gain well into the close of the day,like it did ,I will hold overnight as these very often will gap up on the next open,just like FMDAD did.

I will sell by 10:30 most times as these tend to fade after 30-60 mins after the open.Many times you can get 20% or more from the stock.

An example today is
OBCI that brokeout huge yesterday.It held good into close considering it was up 200% at one point yesterday.

This I would hold for the expected gap up on todays open and set a MENTAL trailing stop to lock in profits.

Let's see what OBCI does at open.

(This is Muddy's post, not mine.)

Tuesday, January 9, 2007

THE POWER OF HODS,VOLUME .....

The 10/60 cross,going green,knowing some favorite stocks,even dollar mark crosses,SIMPLE stuff like that.
This from yesterdays chat:

(12:57) Muddy: Elle,FMDAD finally green 1.69

(13:22) Muddy: FMDAD just crossed 10/60 1.8

If you look at a chart you'll see the volume spikes coming in there.

Then today:

(Jan 09-12:03) Muddy: we mentioned FMDAD yest,steady up near 2 now

(Jan 09-12:03) Muddy: old symbol FMDAY

(Jan 09-12:06) Muddy: just popped over 2

From there it went an unreal hod 3.70 !

And from yesterdays:

(11:26) Muddy: GOAM 7.5 ( i know this stock very well over the years as a potential bigtime runner with vol spikes,it had just gone green at 7.35,off lod EVEN 7)

(11:27) Muddy: to 8 (in a minute!)

(12:09) Muddy: GOAM 8 cross (there's the even mark cross)

(12:49) Muddy: do you see GOAM 10/60 cross today (the cross came at 7.70 and with a volume spike to boot!)

(13:00) Elle: yeah, GOAM is great runner (few times a year!)

(13:00) Muddy: yes sure is (and we KNOW this stock)

(13:23) Muddy: Elle,GOAM looks coiled

(13:24) Muddy: bid/ask flipping (watching price action)

It closed at 10.30

These kind are not rare at all,in fact if you go to Mondays log you'll see FMDAD and GOAM we are talking about them running at the SAME time of day!

Check out Thursdays, ,Fridays and Mondays log for MEMY.

This stock gave big profits on 3 straight days from SIMPLE STUFF

Sunday, January 7, 2007

It was Touch and Go......


Funny, me picking the FORG 01.04.07 chart for the first 10/60 chart example to post since it ran so nice on Friday. Here's that chart. You can see where it almost touched yet NEVER crossed below. So no sell signal. From the near touch around $1.62 to $1.85 at close, another 14%! SWEET...

Yawn......


Remember, the 10/60 Cross doesn't make things happen.......

Here is chart of GW with 10/60 crosses that look nice at first glance. In most cases though, ignore a stock like this since it has no day range. Look at the range on the chart, from 6.45 to the top 6.70; less than 4% range. Look at the "buy" crosses, only about a .10 move on each. For a $6.50 stock that is less than a 2% move. Many better opportunities out there.

DAYRANGERS FOR THIS WEEK 1/8

MAMA DRL ONT FORG NWACQ ONSM MVIS MEMY ZICA DKAM EVCC ICGN PFSW RMDX IFON OPBL TNEN ESCL ZVUE TKO CPSL FFHL ARTX SCRA SIGA THLD IMMU SKNN URZ RGBL

All ADR(10)>10%

I use these with the couple filters i use,the fast%k,the flag pattern and ema13/sma20 UBB zone pull and the
"goal post" pattern described in the comments on 12/10 post ADDED A LINK
Also with the sma 10/60 cross if they have the volume

And of course when they hit the HOD LIST with volume
Anyone who saw MEMY's 2 incredible runs in the p.m. Thurs and Fri will understand how once in awhile these stocks can just take off.

The champ here this week is RGBL with 26% ADR over the last 10 days followed closely by ZICA at 25%

Thursday, January 4, 2007

USSE watch for 01.05.07


Saw USSE moving near close, but with work, I can't post much. This is one I was watching a month or two ago, a reverse merger I think. Former symbol was LFZA. After I saw it running, I checked and saw news.

Notice the first oval, not a 10/60 cross, but if you were already in, you would still be in until the sell cross, which never happened. So you would hold. If for some reason you were following this and looking for entry, you would wait for a definite opening when one line pulls away from the other . Second circle at EOD. Look at the volume spiking at close!!

This is a penny stock (which I rarely trade) and is not a recommendation to buy, but will be fun to watch. I think this one is gonna fly.

FORG 10 min/60 min chart


I think doubleclick couple times to enlarge. Sheesh, this website and blog stuff is killing me!

FORG on the Scottrade daily chart. Now believe me, Scott intraday charts leave a LOT to be desired, but since I don't use, or want to use, any complicated intraday stuff it works okay for me. Muddy taught me "caveman" trading over the past few years, and I have to say it works for me. Keep it simple, price and volume is all. That's the beauty of watching the HOD list daily, you can catch the runners quick if you know them from the past, or you see them hitting HOD list repeatedly.

The chart settings we use are a 5 min candle, 2.5 day chart (hey that's all they have for a 5 min). Add indicators for 10 min sma, 60 min sma, and volume.

I have circled the 10/60 crosses. Note the first circle on the FORG chart is a possible indication to SELL and the second one near close today a BUY signal.

PLEASE, don't ask which line has to cross which line. If the price is going up and it crosses, it is a buy and vice versa. If one cross is a sell, then the next cross is a buy. That's the nice thing about this....a quick look gives you confirmation if you were considering entry. Don't make this complicated.........it's a simple visual method when things are moving quickly.

I'll post a few more charts on the weekend with some comments.

Scottrade Market Movers Screenshot


High of days on right, new 52s in green, Low of days on left, new 52 low in red. Click and hold the min/max button on window to freeze it cause it flies too quick to read sometimes.

I am a blogging dummy, I think you need to double click a couple of times to enlarge the pic.

Wednesday, January 3, 2007

WATCHES 1/4

SGU WBTO FORG THLD TNEN SKNN GROW CNR MVIS MOVI

GREEN hold

I'll continue to play CPSL, for what I can get out of its great dayrange until it dries up.

Monday, January 1, 2007

100% STOCKS

Here is a list of 20 stocks that were either mentioned in my watch lists on this blog or in the chat room BEFORE they at least doubled or more in the past 6 WEEKS, every one i believe in both as far as I know.
A few still maintain this status as of today, though many have fallen below it. THIS IS WHAT TRAILING STOPS ARE FOR.
I'm in no way saying 100% could be made on these stocks,because of the trailing stop rule.
But isn't 20% or more ok to take out of the middle of that 100% run? I sure think so.

MAMA FORG TNEN ZICA HTI SKNN NWACQ ONSM CPNLQ TGEN CPSL XNN TSTC ZVUE AQUA NSLT GOAM SOLM ITKG MIVT

Myself i watch/trade stocks with unusually ABOVE average dayrange in a setting I feel is conducive for a quick pop or a nice few day swing trade setup.

Of those 20 only AQUA at the time i was not familiar with,but had to watch it off its 12/4 sq/vol/br.
I felt at the time a very small position in it at between .06 (which would have been a catch of green the next day)and .08 could very well lead to a double in the next day or 2. As it was it ran to close at .30 on the 6th with over a million shrs traded on the 5th and 6th. You can see by the chart that this one didn't even trade over 10k shares many days in the preceding weeks,it was actually a ZERO volume stock a few days in the last few months,which if you've followed me the past few years you know i love that angle. These type can give powerful quick moves when they start to get interest with big volume

All of these 20 stocks i felt exhibited a very good risk/reward ratio at the time.
Many years ago before I started trading these above average dayrangers i would get stuck in low dayrangers for weeks at a time,watching them trade sideways all the while eating up TIME and keeping my trading capital from working elsewhere.
With the compounding factor thrown in, i saw that these sideways stocks were actually risker than stopping out with a 3-4% loss on the type of stocks i now trade.
Losers are and always will be part of the game, there can be no avoiding this.
I take my loss and FORGET about it and move on to the next potentially very profitable trade, always with that powerful compounding factor in sight.